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Sep 22, 2016 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on U.S. Recession Might Begin Within 2 Quarters

U.S. Recession Might Begin Within 2 Quarters

U.S. economic fundamentals have deteriorated markedly since last year, now to an extent that a recession may be on the horizon. Recession dates are declared with a lag of six months or longer – we know that the economy is in a recession at least six months after it has begun. Recognizing

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Sep 09, 2016 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on What’s Next For Bonds?

What’s Next For Bonds?

In their speeches during and after the annual retreat in Jackson Hole on Aug 25-27, Federal Reserve officials sounded more hawkish than most observers expected. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that the case to raise interest rates is getting stronger as the U.S. economy approaches the Fed’s goals: In light

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Aug 31, 2016 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Why The Economy Is Slowing

Why The Economy Is Slowing

The U.S. economy is clearly slowing down – real growth was only 1.1% (annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016. Real (net of inflation) growth in gross domestic product is the broadest measure of the health of our economy, and is the main driver of income and employment growth.

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Aug 08, 2016 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Q2 Earnings: A Continued Decline

Q2 Earnings: A Continued Decline

With the Q2 earnings reporting season drawing to a close, the S&P 500 operating earnings continue to decline. Growth currently stands at -3.5% year-over-year, according to Factset.  Companies beat their carefully-designed targets by a margin that’s consistent with the historical average, 3% to 4%. When Q2 earnings are fully reported, I

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Jul 18, 2016 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Where Inflation Will Come From –

Where Inflation Will Come From –

Roman Chuyan, CFA July 18, 2016 The Federal Reserve has been trying to boost inflation since the financial crisis, and inflation finally did begin to rise this year. In fact, core (excluding food and energy) consumer price index inflation was at 2.2% in June (the orange line on the chart

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Jul 02, 2016 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on After Brexit, Back to Fundamentals

After Brexit, Back to Fundamentals

On June 23rd, the citizens on the United Kingdom voted decisively (51.9%) to leave the European Union, despite a campaign to remain in the EU led by the UK’s top politicians.  Markets reacted sharply to the news: the pound sterling lost about 10% and is trading near its lowest level in

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Jun 24, 2016 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Brexit: Immediate Effect and Perspective

Brexit: Immediate Effect and Perspective

Roman Chuyan, CFA June 24, 2016 Yesterday, the citizens on the United Kingdom voted decisively (51.9%) to leave the European Union, despite a campaign to remain in the EU led by the UK’s top politicians including Prime Minister David Cameron.  Markets reacted sharply to the news: the pound sterling lost about

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Jun 10, 2016 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on The Fed: A Position of Weakness

The Fed: A Position of Weakness

Roman Chuyan, CFA June 10, 2016 After a seven-year bull run, stock market valuation reached its highest level since 2000. Then, corporate earnings began to decline in 2015 and U.S. economic fundamentals deteriorated this year. Under these conditions, we would normally expect a stock market correction, or worse. Yet, stocks continue

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Jun 01, 2016 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on G-7 Warns About Unsustainable Debt

G-7 Warns About Unsustainable Debt

Roman Chuyan, CFA June 1, 2016 Central banks’ monetary policies – zero or negative interest rates and bond purchases – are losing their effectiveness. Earlier this year, the G-20 country leaders stated that “monetary policy alone cannot lead to balanced growth” and advocated that governments add fiscal stimulus. It was followed by similar

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May 05, 2016 | Post by: Roman Chuyan, CFA Comments Off on Central Banks Have No Cure

Central Banks Have No Cure

Roman Chuyan, CFA May 5, 2016 “If many remedies are prescribed for an illness, you may be certain that the illness has no cure.” ~ Anton Chekhov, The Cherry Orchard Most observers agree (at least, those whose experience spans a complete market cycle) that the equity market is overextended. Market

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